Two important points to keep in mind.
- It’s likely that most people that bought only FEI have already sold all of their tribe. What returns they’ve had on their tribe varies with the market at the moment they sold, of course. But even if they sell now, near an all time low at 1.41$, they’ll be getting around 10% of the dollar amount of the ETH they invested. I’m getting this number from the following calculation:
(1/(640,000*2052))100,000,0001.41 = 0.1073647661
What this says is that for every 1 dollar in ETH invested, out of all the 640,000 ETH at 2052 dollars, each investor got the prorata share of 100,000,000 TRIBE, each of which now they can sell at $1.41 for a 10 cent return. In fact, it’s closer to 11 cents than to 10 cents. Again, keep in mind that most people that sold TRIBE sold tribe considerably above $1.41 and so earned more than 10 cents for each dollar they put into genesis.
If my calculation is mistaken, please correct me.
All this said, as long as we pay $1 to any FEI holder that was just here for the airdrop, we’ll be actualizing their unreasonable fantasy of making a quick 10% on their investment. Of course, some of them will have made as much as 25% on their investment. Even if we pay $0.9, those that are worst off will break even and those that are luckier might make as much as a 15% return. All within a week, as a reward for viciously spreading misinformation and threats all over the internet.
Many people are saying that $1 is the only noble option. But consider the numbers above before you jump to that conclusion. And please wonder who their returns are being taken from.
(Sure, they bought at $1.01 so perhaps the numbers are more like 9% or 24%, but the difference is not significant.)
- “When they go low we go high.” That’s the sentiment that this proposal is infused with.
I can’t begin to imagine how Joey must be feeling at the moment. A precocious entrepreneur right out of college had an extremely attractive and bold idea. What’s more, he had the courage to put his name and his face on it. I will forever admire him for doing so in a space where it’s common practice to act anonymously in order to avoid the worst parts of the web. And no matter what happens with FEI, I will reserve a good dose of envy that he’s achieved this much this early. All of this might sound hyperbolic. But what can I do? No measured statement would make it through the vitriol that’s pervaded twitter and some corners of this forum.
I think it’s noble of the team to put this proposal up for a vote. All I have to say is that when each of us makes the decision on how to vote on Saturday, we should keep in mind the way in which many of the most vocal supporters of a FEI exit have taken advantage of everything I mentioned in the prior paragraph. Sometimes in mild ways, stating half-truths like $1 is the only fair price. Sometimes in moderate ways, spreading heinous accusations that he’s a scammer and that his reputation will be tarnished for life. And sometimes in violent ways, with calls for imprisonment and death threats. Of course, this might not represent the majority of people that would like to see this proposal go through. It likely doesn’t. After all, as I outlined on the first point, the proposal allows many people to profit. But what I want to draw attention to is the possibility that this has had an outsized influence over the team’s decision to draft such a proposal. Needless to say, if I hadn’t had a pseudonym, I would not have felt comfortable saying much of what I’ve said in this forum until today. To tribe holders: whatever decision you make, I hope you vote on what you truly find fair, rather than in reaction to the sabotage we’ve witnessed since last Saturday.
Fear is our worst enemy.
I’m aware my call for reflection sounds rhetorical. Like I’m already convinced that the conclusion is that the proposal is not fair. It’s true that I don’t find the proposal fair. But I know I’m in large part responding to my emotional resistance to rewarding what I’ve seen happen since last Saturday. Perhaps I’m misguided by my own anger towards those people. I’ve done my best to argue why I think it’s not fair. Though many people might just see that as a rationalization.
) that TRIBE “holders” - hmm, we are at day 1 of the protocol but anyway the 100% pre-swap - were clearly betting on the protocol taking instantly a crazy value, FEI holders were thinking of an easy way out with the airdop.